The Impending Lubricant Crisis

Maintaining a high-performance vehicle is becoming increasingly difficult as global supply chain pressures collide with geopolitical instability. Industry experts are warning that the global supply of base oil—a fundamental ingredient in engine lubricants—could be depleted within weeks. This shortage threatens to impact everything from daily commuters to luxury supercars that rely on premium-grade lubricants for engine longevity.


According to Gabriella Twining, head of base oil pricing at Argus Media, the situation is critical:

«Stocks are going to run dry in a month if nothing comes in... You can push back an oil change, but it's just going to be more expensive and there will be less availability.»

Geopolitical Impacts on Refineries

The core of the issue lies in the Middle East, a vital hub for the production of Group III crude. Several key factors have crippled the supply chain:

  • Facility Offline: A major refinery in Qatar remains non-operational following damage sustained earlier this year.
  • Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Refineries in the UAE and Bahrain are currently unable to export their products as the transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz are severely compromised.
  • Shifting Production: Facilities in South Korea, which served as a backup for production, have pivoted to prioritizing fuel feedstock due to their own difficulties in securing crude oil from the Middle East.

Supply Chain Strains and Future Risks

Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA), noted that nearly 75% of US Group III imports are currently under immense stress. Furthermore, the industry is struggling to substitute these products with Group II base oils, as those supplies are currently being diverted to meet diesel production demands.


The outlook for the coming months remains grim. Beyond the current conflict, the approaching hurricane season poses a significant threat to the US Gulf Coast. Alfano warns that a single storm could jeopardize an additional 30–40% of US Group II capacity and 10% of Group III supply, further tightening an already fragile market.


What This Means for Vehicle Owners

Consumers are likely to face significant hurdles when attempting to perform routine maintenance. Reports indicate that major suppliers like Mobil and Shell are already notifying large retailers of potential inventory shortages, suggesting that shelves in automotive departments may soon be empty.

With no clear resolution to the regional conflicts in sight, the automotive industry expects these supply constraints to persist well into next year. For owners of high-end vehicles, this may translate into significantly higher costs for oil changes and, in some cases, the inability to schedule essential maintenance altogether.